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2024-12-13 04:43:54

Interpretation of the Political Bureau Meeting in December by CITIC Securities: It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. CITIC Securities Research Report pointed out that a new round of policy starting guns will be fired, and the policy inflection point will be reconfirmed, making it clear that the macro policy will be strengthened and effective in 2025. From the perspective of fiscal policy, the meeting called for the implementation of a "more active fiscal policy" and enriched the policy toolbox, which may indicate that in 2025, both deficit ratio in a narrow sense and deficit ratio in a broad sense will be significantly improved, and the focus of policy development is also expected to be marginal in the field of people's livelihood consumption. From the perspective of monetary policy, this Politburo meeting calls for the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy. This is the first time that China has implemented a moderately loose monetary policy after 2010. It is estimated that the reverse repo rate will drop by 40-50bps next year, and the LPR and loan interest rates may drop even more. From the perspective of domestic demand policy, the statement of expanding domestic demand in an all-round way, especially "vigorously boosting consumption", exceeds market expectations. With the support of the existing policies coming into effect and the policy of increasing domestic demand, the improvement of domestic demand may have strong certainty and sustainability. In addition, in terms of structural policies, on the one hand, the meeting clearly stated that it is necessary to "stabilize the property market and the stock market", and the importance of the stock market continues to be highlighted, and real estate is still in the policy landing period; On the other hand, the meeting emphasized that "scientific and technological innovation leads the development of new quality productive forces", and new industries and future industries are expected to receive further policy support.Domestic futures closed at night, with coke up 5.6%, glass up about 5%, coking coal and synthetic rubber up over 4%, rebar up over 3% and iron ore up about 2.7%.COMEX gold futures rose more than 1.00% in the day and are now reported at $2,686.20 per ounce.


Market information: Tim Kuniskis, the boss of Dodge and Ram, has returned to Stratlandis Stratlandis. Earlier in 2024, Tim Kuniskis resigned as an executive in Stellantis.According to Yonhap News Agency, South Korean prosecutors are seeking an arrest warrant for the former defense minister.Societe Generale predicts that the S&P 500 will reach 6750 by the end of 2025.


Tesla once rose above $404, hitting an intraday high since November 2021. The current increase in the day is over 4%, and the intraday market value is 1,299.408 billion US dollars.China's first oral version of Smegliptide was pre-sold by Meituan, and the oral version of Smegliptide was pre-sold in Meituan at 21: 00 on December 9th. At the same time, Telpotide, which is recognized by the industry as the "strongest rival" of Smegliptide, opened the first appointment in the US Mission. Users in some areas can make an appointment to go to the same city clinic for weight management. It is reported that the scheduled drug delivery service will be opened within one week. This is also the first appointment for the US Mission to win two star medicines again after Nuoheying (Simei Reduced Edition). According to the data of Meituan, the instantaneous search volume of Simei related products doubled from yesterday.Navigation warning: Military missions will be carried out in the northern part of the Yellow Sea in the Bohai Strait. According to the website of China Maritime Safety Administration, Dalian Maritime Safety Administration issued a navigation warning. From 7: 00 on December 10 to 22: 00 on November 11, some waters in the northern part of the Yellow Sea in the Bohai Strait will be carried out on military missions, and it is forbidden to enter.

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